A victory for Emmanuel Macron on 7 May could unleash a wave of positive energy in France and return its self-confidence, writes Bernard Spitz.
It was deemed impossible and yet he did it. Within just two years, a young minister who was until recently little known by the majority of French people reached the second round of the presidential elections and came out ahead of the far-right candidate. This is a major defeat for traditional parties and France now faces two radically opposed choices in terms of who will govern and the social and economic policies they will put in place. On the one hand, we have a combative and confident France in a reformed Europe and anti-EU isolationism on the other.
Political scientists and communications experts will no doubt take a close look at the combination of incredible talent, raw instinct and sheer luck that led to Emmanuel Macron’s victory. He certainly benefited from the right planetary alignment that was so important to Napoléon for his generals. The success of candidates from both the far right and far left and their negative, protectionist campaigns will also have to be studied in great detail. But for now, let us say that this election clearly marks the end of a cycle and the beginning of a new era for France.
This is the end of a triple cycle: generational, political and institutional. Firstly, many of those who have been in power for decades in Parliament and other Republican institutions will soon be replaced by a new generation of men and women. New faces from the centrist Modem party and civil society and also extremist and populist parties will emerge. Secondly, the political landscape will also change. The historical defeat of the Right and the collapse of the Socialists pave the way for a new configuration with a reformist group at the centre and extremist movements in opposition. Thirdly, this election will give French institutions a new lease of life. For the first time since the beginning of the Fifth Republic, a coalition government is possibility. The Parliament will also be rejuvenated and become more representative. After the second round, the June legislative elections will determine what the future presidential majority will look like. Whatever happens on 7 May, the Fifth Republic will enter a new chapter in its history.
This is therefore the end of a cycle. After Brexit and the election of Donald Trump, the outside world sees France as being on the front line of the fight against populism and protectionism and is watching these elections with great interest and some degree of anxiety. The country is one of the last defences which, if breached, could destabilise Italy and then the rest of Europe with serious risks for the economy and, in the long term, for peace.
The election of Emmanuel Macron could unleash a wave of positive energy in France. A young President who knows the business world, speaks English and has a very good understanding of new technologies would represent the complete opposite of those who preceded him at the Elysée Palace. This would be a guaranteed international success, sending a positive image of French people. “France is back”, Donald Trump might tweet. A feeling of optimism greater than fears fuelled by terrorism and international tensions could then spread across a country that so desperately needs to restore trust in the leadership of its political class. This would energise entrepreneurs but also give hope to those who are angry about the state of affairs: young and unemployed people, farmers, small shop owners, factory workers, the middle classes. Abroad, Germany would start to trust France again, particularly its ability to reform Europe. The markets would also look differently at a country that embraces the future and empowers its youth. And with Trudeau in Canada a group of younger Western leaders could emerge.
France is at a crossroad. Whether it wants to live a great moment of hope and optimism – as it did in 1998 with the World Cup – and enjoy the prosperity that comes with every victory is now up to her. “Yes we can”, Obama seemed to say when he called Emmanuel Macron. We will find out in two weeks.
Bernard Spitz is the President of Les Gracques and is in charge of International and European Affairs at the head of MEDEF, the French employers’ organisation
Published in April 2017