François Fillon would aim to regain Germany’s trust and reach out to the United Kingdom if he becomes the next French President in May 2017, writes François Le Goff.
After Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as US President, François Fillon’s surprise win following the first round of France’s centre-right primary shows that voters continue to defy the polls and analysts’ predictions. It also shows that there is currently a strong appetite for change in France, at least among centre-right sympathisers. This was confirmed on 27 November when they selected him as their main candidate for next year’s presidential election. It is good news for the country and for Europe.
François Fillon is proposing bold economic reforms, too drastic some would say. This is certainly the argument made by many of his critics. But whoever wins in May 2017, the next French President will need to make important reforms in order to tackle France’s structural deficit, boost growth and job creation – particularly for young people – and to restore its credibility vis-à-vis Germany and other European partners. François Fillon or even Emmanuel Macron could be this man.
Of all the declared presidential candidates, François Fillon is perhaps the one who has been the most explicit about the need for France to be a serious and reliable partner. As a former French Prime Minister, he knows too well that the Franco-German partnership is no longer working and that France must regain Germany’s trust. The consistency he has shown in the way his message was delivered over the past months should be welcomed in Berlin as a sign of reliability and trustworthiness.
Among the German political class, there is also growing recognition that Germany needs to compromise if the Franco-German partnership is to be revived. This was palpable during our Club of Three Plenary meeting in London at the end of October. A more Keynesian approach – for instance accepting a degree of fiscal stimulus in Europe in return for reforms in France – was seen as a potential way forward.
As far as Britain is concerned, François Fillon can be expected to have good relations with our friends on the other side of the Channel. Like many French politicians, his position on Brexit is firm and relatively uncompromising. But he also understands and shares some of the concerns that led to the UK’s decision to leave the EU. If François Fillon is now advocating deeper integration in the Eurozone, let’s not forget that he was opposed to the Maastricht Treaty in the 1990s. His view of Europe has been shaped by the Général de Gaulle: a Europe of nations. And he is a pragmatist and economically liberal, two typical British values. This is why there are reasons to be optimistic about France’s future ties with Britain if he becomes the next French President in May 2017.
Looking at his policies on Europe, one cannot help but notice that a major country like Britain would have a lot to contribute post-Brexit. François Fillon proposes to focus European action on three strategic areas: Eurozone integration; security and defence; and investment, innovation and research. Close cooperation with Britain in the last two areas would be extremely beneficial to the whole of Europe, both socially and economically, and help to make our region attractive again and relevant to all Europeans. This is what the Chairman of the Bundestag’s Foreign Affairs Committee and friend of the Club of Three, Norbert Röttgen, often calls legitimacy through economic success.
Our October Plenary meeting reached a similar conclusion and showed that, post-Brexit, the potential for France, Germany, the UK and others to work together to address common challenges remains significant. Adjusting to the rapid social changes brought about by digitalisation for example is a far bigger challenge than Brexit, and one that will require input from all major European nations.
François Fillon will likely end up in the final round of the presidential election in May and very possibly win it if the other opponent turns out to be the Front National. His win on 27 November as the main centre-right candidate could therefore be the first step towards France’s return to the centre of European politics and the beginning of a period of fruitful cooperation within Europe.
François Le Goff is General Secretary of the Club of Three.
*This article was initially published on 24 November and updated on 28 November.
Published in November 2016