Instead of dealing with its own vulnerabilities, Europe continues to use an old playbook ripped apart by the U.S President, writes Lanxin Xiang.
The EU has found itself in a difficult geopolitical spot since the return of Donald Trump to the White House in January. Its leadership, and the European Commission especially, has still not taken the measure of the fundamental changes that occurred in the first months of the new Trump administration, both domestically and on the world stage.
The Europeans were surprised when Trump won the U.S election in 2016 but viewed it as a one-off aberration, and today they continue to hold on to their much-cherished rules-based international order and cling to the idea of its resurrection.
The first mistake made by the Europeans is their failure to grasp the sea change brought about by Trump’s anti-elite revolution, or what he likes to call “common sense revolution”. The American liberal elite is also oblivious to this, it seems. Donald Trump has essentially resurrected Thomas Paine’s 18th century precept that ordinary people should never allow the elite to formulate what is best for them, which marks the death of liberal America.
Another major miscalculation by the Europeans is their pursuit, still today, of a hawkish policy vis-à-vis China based on transatlantic solidarity, and which is very much associated with the Biden era playbook towards China. This “systemic rivalry” approach has been jettisoned entirely by the new U.S administration. The strong language aimed at Beijing used by the European Commission’s President at the recent G7 summit will do little to impress a U.S President who talks of a competition with China on “friendly terms”. This kind of tone will no longer curry special favours with the U.S. The same goes to calling Trump “Daddy”.
The EU’s Taiwan policy is also deeply misguided. It should not have linked Taiwan with what is happening in Ukraine by stating that Taiwan was going to be the next conflict. This is very dangerous in my view, and too closely associated with the U.S policy under Biden. President Biden publicly pledged that the U.S would defend Taiwan if Beijing attacked the island, breaking from years of U.S strategic ambiguity. But Trump put an end to this by refusing to commit to Taiwan’s defence.
This new world order is one that, like Trump, is largely de-ideologised with a return to normal and pragmatic great power relationships. By failing to understand and adjust to this reality, the EU is marginalising itself internationally.
Trump’s “America first” nationalism should have forced the EU to address its own strategic vulnerabilities and pursue a more multipolar world strategy, or at least true strategic autonomy, and work more closely with China. A healthy, pragmatic relationship with China that is free from ideology is crucial for Europe’s success. Unfortunately, the EU has embraced a new Cold War approach of bilateral confrontation in the wake of the war in Ukraine.
The EU needs to radically reassess its relations with both the U.S and China in line with the paradigm shift brought about by Trump.
It was not that long ago that China-EU relations were near the top of Beijing’s agenda, but now ties are at a nadir. China has made efforts to make certain concessions, but the EU is still sticking to its old approach of systemic rivalry.
U.S protectionist policies have undercut the open marketplace that Europe has relied on for its economic growth. With its successful industrial strategy, China set the goal of achieving global market leadership in 10 value-added intensive industrial sectors. Without a major rethinking by its leadership, the EU is staring at a major decline in the near future.
Lanxin Xiang is Professor emeritus at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva; Club of Three Senior Adviser, China; and Director of the Center for One Belt, One Road Studies in Shanghai.